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Type 1 Diabetes Incidence and Chemical Production, U.S.

Type 1 diabetes incidence has increased in conjunction with chemical production in the U.S. over the past decades. Incidence rates were low before World War 2 (the range is shown in the bars above 1920), when the widespread use of chemicals began. While correlation does not prove causation, these trends could be related.

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NIH reports

Diabetes and obesity

The U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) held a workshop to evaluate the scientific evidence on chemicals in diabetes and obesity, and published a review of the evidence: Role of environmental chemicals in the development of diabetes and obesity: A National Toxicology Program workshop report  

The NTP found that, “Overall, the existing literature was judged to provide plausibility, varying from suggestive to strong, that exposure to environmental chemicals may contribute to the epidemic of diabetes and/or obesity....Research on environmental chemical exposures and type 1 diabetes was very limited. This lack of research was considered a critical data gap.” (Thayer et al. 2012).

Reports from this workshop that have been published so far include: 
Additional papers on BPA, phthalates, and pesticides have not yet been published, but drafts and other information are available on the workshops's website: role of environmental chemicals in the development of diabetes and obesity.

Autoimmune diseases

The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) also held a workshop to evaluate scientific evidence of environmental factors in autoimmune disease. Their report is available online: Epidemiology of environmental exposures and human autoimmune diseases: findings from a National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Expert Panel Workshop (Miller et al. 2012).

The NIEHS found that: "There has been virtually no epidemiologic research on risks associated with relatively widespread synthetic chemical exposures, such as plasticizers (e.g., phthalates and bisphenol A). Some of these chemicals can act as endocrine or immune disruptors, and increased risks of some immune-mediated diseases, including asthma and eczema, in relation to exposure levels, have been reported in children. More research is needed to determine the role of plasticizers and other industrial chemicals in consumer products in the development of autoimmune disease."

CHEM Trust report

CHEM Trust has published a report, "A Review of the Science Linking Chemical Exposures to the Human Risk of Obesity and Diabetes," which is an excellent review of the evidence.

Type 1 diabetes incidence is increasing in children, but why?

When I began this research, I had three basic questions. Here they are, along with the answers I found.
  1. Are more children really getting type 1 diabetes? Yes. Type 1 diabetes incidence is increasing in children, especially the youngest children, in countries around the world (Diamond Project Group 2006) (see the incidence pages for details)
  2. If so, why? Could environmental contaminants contribute to this increase? No one knows why, but there are many possibilities. I think environmental contaminants could contribute to the increasing incidence of type 1 diabetes. But do they? We don't know yet.
  3. Is there anything I can do to lower the risk of my child developing type 1 diabetes? Maybe. See the list below for some possibilities.
A number of environmental factors have been associated with the development of type 1 diabetes. It is not yet known which of these factors are responsible for the increasing rates of disease in children, but since many of these factors influence and interact with each other, multiple factors are probably involved. The hypotheses page describes a number of possible factors and how they may interact. Different factors may be operating in different populations and in different parts of the world, making generalizations difficult. It is also not clear whether type 1 diabetes incidence is also increasing in adults, or whether people are simply being diagnosed at younger and younger ages.

Nevertheless, there is evidence that a number of environmental factors can contribute to the development of type 1 diabetes, such as inadequate vitamin D levels, a leaky gut, high growth ratesviruses, perhaps stress, and, probably, exposure to some environmental contaminants. Many of these factors have changed over time, and could conceivably contribute to the increasing incidence of type 1 diabetes in children. 
 
How could we find out what factors are contributing to the increasing incidence of type 1 diabetes in children? We would need to know what factors can contribute to the development of the disease, by following people over time before they develop the disease and keeping track of their environmental exposures. We could identify biological mechanisms whereby factors contribute to diabetes in animals, although animals are not quite the same as humans. And, if possible, intervention trials to prevent type 1 might also be feasible (e.g., by giving people vitamin D supplements, for example, to see if people with higher vitamin D levels have a lower risk of developing type 1 diabetes over time).


Bill has had type 1 diabetes for 72 years, since age 3. He emailed: "I'm writing mainly to give you confidence that your child can live a worthwhile and productive life, even with Type 1."

Do chemicals play a role in type 1 diabetes development?

What is the evidence that environmental contaminants might have something to do with the increasing incidence of type 1 diabetes? While only a few environmental contaminant exposures have been associated with type 1 diabetes in studies of people (PCBs, air pollutants, some heavy metals, and nitrate/nitrite), most studies of type 1 have not included measures of environmental contaminant exposures. A number of contaminants have been associated with diabetes (type 2, gestational, or unspecified) in humans (see the environmental contaminants and potential mechanisms pages for a summary of these and the following associations). A number of contaminants have been associated with risk factors of type 1 diabetes, such as weight gain, in humans and animals. A number of contaminants have been found to affect beta cells, and to induce or exacerbate autoimmunity, inflammation, insulin resistance, or oxidative stress in animals and sometimes humans, all processes that may play a role in the development of type 1 diabetes.

While exposure to environmental contaminants is not traditionally thought to be a risk factor for type 1 diabetes, the weight of all this evidence suggests that there is certainly potential for contaminants to contribute to the development of type 1 diabetes. The historical patterns of contamination are consistent with historical patterns of type 1 diabetes incidence. Whether some or many environmental contaminants are contributing to the rising rates of disease in children remains unknown, but it is plausible and possible.

Type 2 Diabetes

When I started reading these studies, I did not expect to find that type 2 diabetes may be linked to contaminants. Like most people, I thought that weight gain, a poor diet, and lack of exercise could explain the increasing rates of type 2. I now think, like many scientists, that contaminants probably play a role in the development of type 2 diabetes as well. The effects of contaminants may be exacerbated by obesity and other lifestyle factors, but lifestyle and genes alone do not account for all cases of type 2 or all of its increasing incidence. In fact, there is growing scientific evidence that contaminant exposures can contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes. 

Consider that about 20% of adults with diabetes are not overweight or obese (Nguyen et al. 2010); gastric bypass surgery often leads to remission of type 2 diabetes even before any weight loss occurs (Pournaras et al. 2010); and in people with very low levels of contaminant exposures, obesity does *not* increase the risk of diabetes (Lee et al. 2006). 

Gestational Diabetes

There is preliminary evidence linking gestational diabetes to environmental contaminants (e.g., see the pesticides, arsenic, air pollution, and bisphenol A pages). But since gestational diabetes is so common, and can increase the risk of type 1 or type 2 in the mother, more research should be devoted to the possibility that contaminants may affect the risk of gestational diabetes development.

Reducing exposure to chemicals

Researchers suggest that both avoiding the intake of toxic chemicals, and increasing their elimination from the body, may help prevent or treat diabetes and other "diseases of civilization" (Lee et al. 2008 , Hennig et al. 2007). Hennig et al. (2007) discuss a number of possible ways to use nutrition and diet to both reduce exposure and increase elimination. The authors describe one case study where a person with insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes (possibly as a result of PCB poisoning) was treated and the diabetes resolved (over 2 years). Watkins et al. (2007) also provide suggestions, including increasing consumption of omega-3 fatty acids and flavonoids (like chocolate...). The Environmental Working Group provides information on how to avoid toxic chemicals in consumer products. Buying organic food, limiting animal fats, avoiding plastic food containers (especially heating food in plastic), limiting fish high in mercury; these are just some of the things you can do to reduce chemical exposures. Let me know if you try any of these strategies, and whether or not they appear to have any effect (better yet; document it with medical records if possible). 

Did you develop type 1 diabetes following a chemical exposure? A number of people have emailed me who are in this situation; we may be able to work together to figure out what chemicals may be of concern. My email: sarah@diabetesandenvironment.org.

Most chemical exposures, however, are widespread, ongoing, and unavoidable. Societal action to reduce exposures may be necessary as well as individual actions, in order to really prevent disease on a population level.

Diabetes management

This website focuses on the development of diabetes-- but what about managing diabetes and avoiding complications? Lee et al. (2008) found that people with higher levels of various persistent organic pollutants (POPs), specifically organochloride pesticides, had higher hemoglobin A1c levels (a measure of long term glucose control) and more neurological complications. This finding could be really important for people with diabetes, and deserves more study. Additional studies have also found associations between a higher HbA1c (or other complications) and environmental chemical levels. More study is welcome!

We do know that some people have a harder time managing diabetes, but we don't know why. There is no evidence (yet!) that reducing exposures/increasing elimination of contaminants could help in diabetes management, but the possibility exists. It might be worth a try.

Can we prevent type 1 diabetes?

There have not yet been any successful intervention trials shown to prevent type 1 diabetes (although one trial has been shown to reduce the risk of developing type 1 related autoantibodies in children genetically at risk-- using hydrolyzed infant formula instead of regular formula-- see the list below). But, if you have type 1 diabetes in your family, and/or are interested in reducing the risk of your children developing the disease, studies do suggest a number of possible steps to try. None is guaranteed to work, of course, but these recommendations are not likely to lead to any harm either. See the linked pages for more information and sources. You could try to:
  • Give children over age 1 who live at latitudes more than 30 degrees from the equator (that includes almost all of the U.S.) 1000-2000 IU vitamin D3 per day, especially during the winter, "to substantially reduce their risk of type 1 diabetes" (Mohr et al. 2008). Other children may benefit as well, especially if they are deficient in vitamin D. Pregnant and lactating women may require higher levels of vitamin D to avoid a deficiency. Do not assume your vitamin D levels are adequate-- get tested by your doctor.
  • Ensure adequate levels of omega-3 fatty acids, especially during pregnancy and in early life. Fish oil, such as cod liver oil, contains both these fatty acids and vitamin D.
  • Taking anti-oxidant supplements (e.g., vitamin C, nicotinamide) does not appear to reduce the risk of type 1 diabetes, but it is still possible that a diet high in anti-oxidants (e.g., vegetables) may still be protective. Eating high glycemic-index foods may accelerate the progression of type 1 diabetes (see the nutrition page).
  • Follow the World Health Organization (WHO) (http://www.unicef.org/) infant feeding guidelines: exclusive breastfeeding for a full 6 months, the introduction of safe and complementary foods from the sixth month of life while breastfeeding continues, and then continued breastfeeding for up to 2 years of age or beyond.
  • Do not introduce solid food in the first three months of life. Be careful introducing certain foods such as dairy, gluten, or soy. Introduce them in small amounts, while breastfeeding, and not too early in life (see the wheat and dairy page).
  • Support the maturation of the intestine with probiotics (see the diet and the gut page).
  • Try to avoid giving birth by Caesarean section (see the gestation and birth page).
  • Limit beta cell stress with adequate physical exercise, by avoiding extra weight gain, and by limiting stress (Ludvigsson 2006).
  • Reduce exposures to environmental contaminants (see "Reducing exposures" above).
  • Both men and women should avoid processed meats or other foods containing nitrate or nitrite when trying to conceive a baby. Especially avoid Icelandic smoked mutton, but you'll have to read the nitrate/nitrite page for that story.
Please keep in mind that even if all these measures really do help and reduce the risk for our loved ones getting type 1 diabetes, many people still may get the disease. My younger son, who has type 1 diabetes, is living proof (although I didn't try them all!). Of course, the point is not to make anyone feel guilty; I could feel guilty about being vitamin D deficient, not supplementing with omega 3s or vitamin D, and possibly even eating bacon while conceiving a baby... but that's a waste of my time. 
 
Timing may be critical, in that these factors may be most important during gestation, in infancy, or early childhood. If you are interested in reducing the risk of type 1 diabetes in a ten year old, like I am, then it may already be too late. Also bear in mind that diabetes has been around since ancient times, and will probably never be prevented entirely. That said, it used to be a rare disease.

Recommendations: Environmental contaminants

Studies on contaminants

There are a number of on-going, prospective studies of type 1 diabetes taking place now that follow people over time, and keep track of various environmental exposures before diagnosis. These studies are important in that they can help determine what factors can contribute to the development of disease. The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) is one such study (TEDDY Study Group 2008). TEDDY includes measurements of many of the other environmental factors discussed in these pages, such as dietary factors, viruses, vaccines, and stress. Yet, like most other prospective studies, it does not include measurements of many of the environmental contaminant exposures discussed on this webpage (with some exceptions). Since the search for the cause of the rising rates of type 1 diabetes has thus far largely been fruitless, research into the possible involvement of multiple environmental contaminants in the development of the disease is in order. This research should entail:
  • Incorporating measurements of multiple environmental contaminant exposures (in parents and children) into on-going, prospective studies of type 1 diabetes.
  • Laboratory experiments of contaminant exposures in animals and cell cultures that could shed light on possible mechanisms and help identify which contaminants are most likely to be important for type 1 diabetes.
  • Studies of contaminant exposures across generations, especially in utero or in early life, and type 1 diabetes development.
According to type 1 diabetes expert Dr. Mark Atkinson, "...the list of potential environmental triggers and regulators of disease in type 1 diabetes remains considerable. It stands likely that only through continued efforts within large, prospective, multicenter screening programs will specific environmental factors (and the influence of genetic and immunologic factors on them) truly associated with the development of the disease be identified. In addition, the complexity of these efforts must go beyond the simplicity of previous efforts and delve into areas not subject to much in the way of previous investigation (e.g., antibiotic use, fever, exposure to environmental toxins, etc.), throughout pregnancy and into early infancy" (Atkinson 2012).

Which environmental contaminants should be studied?

We should focus research on those contaminants that humans are exposed to, especially in utero, via breastmilk, in food, or in consumer goods, and those that show effects in the laboratory that might be important in the development of type 1 diabetes. Many of the these contaminants have already been identified, but that does not rule out the possibility of additional substances as yet unstudied. Contaminants in combination with each other, or with other environmental factors may also be critical. Those that can disrupt the endocrine system and the development and function of the immune system deserve special focus.

Complications to consider

Elucidating the role of contaminants may be complex. Effects are likely to depend on the dose, timing, gender, and other factors. Contaminants may act via a variety of mechanisms; the evidence of exposure may be long gone by the time the disease develops; contaminants may act in combination with other factors such as diet or lifestyle (or other contaminants) to influence the progression of disease; the effects of exposure may in part depend on an individual's genetic susceptibility; and cumulative exposures over the duration of life, beginning in utero (or even earlier?), may be important.
 
Unfortunately, one of the main animals used to study autoimmune diabetes in the lab, NOD (non-obese diabetic) mice, may not be appropriate to use to examine the effects of environmental contaminants on type 1 diabetes in humans (see the of mice and men page).
 
Another complication, which should give anyone the shivers, is the possibility that contaminants can have effects that can be passed down from one generation to the next. Children today may be showing health outcomes from exposures their parents or grandparents had. The implications of this possibility are frightening, but cannot be ruled out (see the gene expression and endocrine disruption pages for some examples and more information).

Pollution prevention

As it now stands, safety data for chemicals has relied on exposures to adults to predict the effects of individual chemicals on the immune system. Yet for many substances, these adult exposures are not the same as an exposure in utero, in infancy, or in early childhood, particularly because the immune system is developing during these times. Considering how many environmental contaminants can affect the developing immune system, it is likely that they could be involved in the development of autoimmune disease later in life. Safety evaluations should consider exposures during the developmental period, not only during adulthood (Dietert and Piepenbrink 2006) (see the autoimmunity page).
 
It's not just type 1 diabetes that is a concern. Up to 25% of children in some developed countries suffer from an immune-based disease. And yet, only a few existing chemicals have been tested for how they may affect the developing immune system (Dietert 2010).
 
Here is what some researchers say about the need to protect health by reducing contaminant exposures: "All of this evidence should encourage regulatory agencies to apply the precautionary principle and thus ban and/or substitute those chemicals that are likely to be harmful to the normal development of humans and wildlife" (Vandenberg et al. 2009).... "We are likely to witness dramatic improvements in human health, and reductions in medical costs, if environmental pollution is decreased" (Edwards and Myers 2007).
 
According to my U.S. Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the authority to regulate more than 80,000 existing chemicals, yet has only had the resources to restrict the production of 5 chemicals over the past 30+ years. Efforts to reform the U.S. Toxic Substances Control Act are now underway and sorely needed.
 
Indeed, preventing pollution may be the most important action we can take. Like drugs, contaminants should be "presumed guilty until proven innocent," or shown to be safe before they are used. Scientists are not allowed to experiment on children in the lab; why should children be exposed to chemicals such that they are effectively experimental subjects in the real world?
 
If exposure to environmental contaminants is ultimately found to contribute to the development of type 1 diabetes, then this disease may in part be preventable.

What do the researchers think?

A number of researchers have been kind enough to look at and comment on this website. Here are some of their comments.

Type 1 diabetes researchers have said:

  • "Virtually all the hypotheses you mention involve beta cell stress, and environmental pollutants are a worthy candidate."
  • "I am also personally interested in the possibility that environmental toxins could affect the development of type 1 diabetes, e.g. by affecting the mucosal epithelial cells and/or immune cells. But I have not done any experimental studies - yet."
  • "I wouldn’t be surprised if environmental contaminants are involved in some individuals ... So, in the end it is good to get these ideas out there and promote research ... In the meantime, keep pushing the community to consider all possibilities."

Type 2 diabetes researchers have said:

  • "I believe that low dose persistent organic pollutants could be deeply involved in developing a variety of diseases, including autoimmune diseases like type 1 diabetes."
  • "I agree that bisphenol A may be important for type 1 diabetes as well as type 2."

Toxicologists have said:

  • "I have produced toxicology data that suggested to me an interference with immune system development, that could increase risk of autoimmune responses... I suspect altered programming of normal immune cell activities, caused by early-life chemical exposures, may also occur and shift an individual's risk level for disease development. Genetic and other predisposing factors then all come together as part of likelihood to develop disease."
 

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